Author:
Michael LaCour-Little, California State University
Jing Yang, California State University
Abstract:
We examine stated income loans originated by Bear Stearns affiliates during the recent housing market run-up and market collapse. After showing the extent to which these loans have higher default rates than do fully documented loans after controlling for other risk factors, we develop a measure for the extent of likely income over-statement. We then simulate a loan origination process that rejects stated income loan applications with high degrees of likely over-statement and calculate the reduction in default rates that might have been achieved had such an algorithm been in place.
This paper was presented on September 16th, 2009 at the FDIC's Seidman Center for the FHFA and the FDIC cohosted symposium on “Improving Assessment of the Default Risk of Single-Family Mortgages”. The symposium included sessions on: Collateral and Appraisal Issues, Underwriting Standards, and Issues in Default Modeling. Attendance included housing and mortgage market experts from industry, academia, and government. The research paper was selected from submissions received in response to a Call for Papers issued in the spring.
The Call for Papers can be downloaded here.